Work Plan

Co-develop guidelines for coordinated experiments including selection of target events.
Collect a variety of observation-based datasets including automatic weather stations, weather radars, lightning data, radiosondes, regional reanalysis, State Emergency Services damage reports, etc.
Perform reanalysis driven simulations and evaluate against observation-based data.
Analysis of simulations to identify key processes in the production of SHEP.
Perform pseudo-global warming experiments and analyse to identify how the events and their contributing processes change.
Explore the added value of ~1km resolution compared to ~10-20km resolution.

Identify CORDEX-CMIP6 Australasia simulations to downscale from. Simulations within this ensemble are currently being evaluated and the chosen simulations will provide the boundary conditions for the convection permitting experiments.
Perform coordinated simulation experiments of the recent past and future.
Analyse the projected future climate outcomes in various ways including the simulations of changes in SHEP events.
Examine the ability of AI/ML techniques to expand the Convection Permitting ensemble.
Work with stakeholders to quantify the implications for their climate change risk assessments.
Compare the future changes simulated with a pseudo-global warming approach with those obtained from climate length simulations.